Tuesday's Three Astros Things
Talking about the Astros offense, Jose Abreu, and prospect analytics...
Some things to talk about while I'm glad the Rangers series is behind us…
The Astros offense? What the heck?
During Saturday's Astros broadcast, Todd Kalas and Geoff Blum showed a graphic that blew my mind.
They showed how Houston has one of the best offenses in the league. Judging by batting average and exit velocity and some other stats I cannot remember, Houston was one of the top two or three offenses in baseball.
Why was that so mind-boggling? It seems to contradict what I saw with my eyeballs. The offense struggled to consistently score runs in the Rangers series, had one breakout against the Blue Jays before going to sleep for the next two, and struggling to score runs in all three Rangers games before Monday.
At the same time, many of Houstons players are having good years! Jose Altuve looks locked in. Yordan is coming around. Kyle Tucker and Yainer Diaz have been great for all of the young season. Chas McCormick has also been solid, Jeremy Pena has hit well.
Judging by BaseRuns and some of the other projection systems, Houston has played like a 6-5 team, so they’re under performing at 4-7. They are also solidly top 10 in both projected runs per game and runs allowed by Base Runs.
If you have to point to one area where Houston has consistently struggled, it’s runners left on base. Houston has stranded 76 runners this season, good for ninth in baseball. They are also ninth in runners stranded in scoring position.
The weird thing is you can’t really blame that. Their offense did similar things in 2023, stranding a tenth of a runner less on base in scoring position than in 2024. Also, the teams above them in both standings are some of the stronger offenses in baseball, including the Rangers, the Yankees, and the 9-2 Pirates, who lead baseball in both categories.
Basically, you have to get on base a bunch to lead the league in either category. Houston has had some bad luck, but it’s not the worst in the league. Which means we are probably dealing with standard deviation and small sample size nonsense, so we shouldn’t get too bent out of shape. Things will normalize.
Except for Jose Abreu. Him we can get bent out of shape about, but more on that in a minute.
What to do with Jose Abreu
Chandler Rome wrote a story Monday about the biggest elephant in the Astros lineup.
Jose Abreu is bad. He’s looked bad enough to drop him down to seventh in the order. He may have done pilates this winter but he hasn’t been able to translate his late season run into success in 2024.
It’s hurting Houston in key situations too.
On Saturday, Abreu came up to bat with the bases juiced and two outs. He could have knocked Rangers starter Jon Gray out of the game with one swing.
Instead, as has happened all too often this season, he made weak contact on a pop-up to first baseman Jared Walsh to end the inning.
I’m no scout, but for the past two years, Abreu’s bat seemingly has slowed down. Early last year, his most success came on hits the opposite way.
The data, this year, seems to back up that lag in bat speed.
Pitchers have been attacking Abreu with four-seam fastballs this year at an alarming rate. He’s faced 71 percent four-seamers through these first nine games.
His exit velocity, which is often tied to bat speed, is at a career-low 87.2 mph, according to Baseball Savant. It’s early in the season, but that ranks him in the bottom 30 percent of the league in EV.
His hard-hit percentage has also plummeted from the low 50s for most of his career to 41 percent last year and an anemic 22 percent this season. He has not barrelled a ball yet this year, despite a sweet spot percentage in line with his career averages.
Basically, he’s missing the ball more, and when he does put the bat on the ball, it’s not going for good contact. That’s not a good combination for an aging player on a contending club.
Abreu’s situation reminds me of Robinson Cano, a tiny bit. The key difference is that Cano was coming off a year suspension for PED use when the Mets cut him despite owing him $47 million on his contract.
Cano only played 12 games for the Mets that year, totaling 40 at-bats and hitting .195/.223/.268. He played in 21 more games for the Padres and Braves once he was basically free, but was done after that.
Abreu is two years younger than Cano, has played in nine games this year with 24 at-bats and a line of .074/.138/.074. That means he has no extra-base hits this year.
He’s owed $39 million this year and next, so less than Cano had on his deal when the Mets ate it. Will Crane do something similar?
Rome’s article makes a good observation.
Spring training standout Joey Loperfido started at first base for Triple-A Sugar Land on Saturday and smacked his minor-league-leading fifth home run of the season, but the team hasn’t exposed him enough at first base this year to merit an imminent promotion. Loperfido also has 12 strikeouts in his first 27 at-bats. Unless Loperfido or another minor leaguer can force the club’s hand, Abreu must continue to play.
Something I’ve been saying to my family this season (that they have rightly ignored), is that if Abreu wasn’t on the team, Loperfido would be the starting first baseman this year. His bat is ready, and you figure given all of spring training to prepare for something like that, Loperfido could have held his own admirably there.
But, since we do have Abreu at first, Loperfido is just now getting time at first. He will need time and patience at the position. But, will Houston be willing to move on from Abreu?
I could see two scenarios pulling him from the lineup. Scenario one is an injury diagnosis. Phantom or not, sending Abreu to the 60-day IL would be an easy way not to bruise egos, even if the malady affecting him is decrepitness and not a diagnosable injury.
Given the hammer MLB brought down on former Mets GM Billy Eppler for this, I doubt Houston actually ices Abreu on the injured list.
Scenario two is just as unlikely, but has become slightly more common in baseball. Houston could find a trading partner, add a prospect as sweetener and pick up some percentage of the money Abreu has left.
I doubt this happens either, because, well, it’s not clear Abreu has anything left. Sure, sure, it’s early in the season, but I bet teams will only challenge him with more heat as the weeks move on. Will he be able to catch up to it?
If not, what is Houston’s path forward?
Spencer Arrighetti is analytically inclined
How have the Astros been able to have success with their pitching staff despite not having top-level arm talent in the pipeline? A system that has been ranked at the bottom of baseball for the last five years or so has churned out guys like Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Bryan Abreu, Hunter Brown, J.P. France, and is about to graduate another in Spencer Arrighetti.
This far-reaching Q&A with FanGraph’s David Laurilia shows some of the reason why Houston has been so successful. It starts with analytics.
That doesn’t mean a bunch of spreadsheet mavens. It means things like using biometric data on how you’re holding the ball when its released to maximize movement. It’s studying grip profiles to maximize your specific stuff.
And it’s how Arrighetti has transformed himself in the next in Houston’s assembly line of pitching prospects.
Listen to how Arrighetti talks about his vertical movement.
“I’d summarize it by saying that vertical approach angle is kind of indicative of how a pitch will perform. Fastballs are especially vertical-approach-angle dependent on where you should throw them. I’ve learned about that. I’ve also made an effort to improve vertical approach on my fastball, as well as improve spin axis and spin rates on my other pitches.
That’s not looking at raw numbers; that’s using insights and data from all the technology Houston has to hone his arsenal. Look at how it helped him with just his grips.
“I don’t throw a single pitch the same way that I threw it in college; I actually don’t throw many pitches the same way that I threw them in Low-A. We’ve been really good about finding grips and cues that complement my arm and the way I want to throw the ball. Because of that, I’ve been able to develop an arsenal that I’m really confident in. So yeah, I’ve made a lot of drastic changes — even this offseason. I made a big adjustment with my changeup grip. Grips are great until they’re not, and cues are also great until they’re not. When it’s time to adjust, you adjust. Sometimes the adjustment is big, and that’s OK.”
It takes a special kind of player to be so trusting of a team and of the data. To look at what is being shown and adjusting to it, even after having success in the minors. Arrighetti was the team’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2023 and yet he still drastically adjusted his changeup grip.
It’s a fascinating conversation and worth your time to see just how teams are using analytics in player development.