Friday's Three Astros Things
What? Did you Think I'd not post now because I just did on Thursday? psh...
Some things to talk about when I forget baseball exists for a while. Thanks, World Series…
Today, I’m not aggregating any news. I’m not commenting on the big stories of the day. No, today you get something special. You get me making a big idiot out of myself. Today, I play GM and tinker with Houston’s lineup.
If I were the GM, what would I do? How would I support this lineup full of stars but with big ol holes that got exploited in the playoffs? Well, I’m glad you asked.
Sign Cody Bellinger
Houston has a contention window that’s closing. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are getting older. Kyle Tucker inches closer to free agency. The pitching staff will lose Justin Verlander eventually.
So why bet on Bellinger?
There are two main reasons. One, he can play center field. While Houston doesn’t have a need there, they could quickly shift Chazzy Fizz to left field permanently and play Bellinger in center. Add in some positional flexibility (like him playing first base once they realize Jose Abreu is a sunk cost), and he makes some sense for the way this team is constructed.
The second reason is his age. As I said, half of Houston’s core is on the wrong side of 30. To prop that contention door open a bit longer, they need to have younger cornerstones. Bellinger, at 28, would be that, assuming he will continue to hit outside Chicago.
He is expensive. Guess what? Jim Crane can afford it. There’s no rule limiting his spending. It’s only his desire to stay under the luxury tax thresholds. So yes, I can advocate for them to sign Bellinger to a big-ticket contract. It makes sense for this roster.
Sign a starting pitcher.
If I can boil my baseball philosophies down to three aphorisms, they’d be:
Trust the Numbers
Never Trust Relievers
Pitchers Always Get Hurt
I’m going to focus on that last one here. Good teams know that pitchers will get injured. Some build depth, only to see their plans foiled because, you guessed it, pitchers always get hurt.
As discussed with our season post-mortem, even good teams deal with injuries. The Dodgers season got wrecked because of their rotation woes. The same goes for the Atlanta Braves. Young arms work as depth only to a point. Sometimes, you must have experience, even if it’s not high-end potential.
That’s what (gulp) the Rangers did. They got big guns like Jacob DeGrom and Max Scherzer. But they also added workhorses like Jonathan Gray and Jordan Montgomery. Dane Dunning was as important to this run as anyone.
So what should Houston do?
If I’m the GM this winter, I’d want to add at least one starting pitcher. Sure, Lance McCullers should be back. Justin Verlander should be back, too. Luis Garcia may pitch at some point. Jose Urquidy, I guess, isn’t injured?
The rotation feels full but look at those question marks. Hunter Brown should see time, but will anyone complain if he’s pushed? J.P. France was a revelation, but he’s old for a prospect and has never pitched that many innings. What happens if he gets hurt?
Of all the options on the market, I’ve got two strategies.
The first is to go for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The 25-year-old may be the best pitcher to come out of Japan ever. At least, that’s how his numbers stack up so far in his young career.
Young is the keyword there. No other pitcher on this market brings his youthfulness. If Houston is going to spend big on a pitcher, it makes sense that it’s this pitcher, someone who can form that next wave of talent with Framber and Cristian Javier.
If they opt against that, a few exciting veterans are floating around who could be helpful. If it were me, I’d target Michael Wacha, the former Texas A&M standout, and Kyle Gibson. Both are older but could probably be had on a one-year deal. It’s sort of like when James Click brought in Jake Odorrizi. That move didn’t work well, but it still provided veteran stability in a rotation when injuries happened.
Change the catching dynamics.
Look, I know I’m not the first to say this. It’s both a popular and unpopular opinion among Astros fans. As much as I love him, as much as he appears to be the beating heart of this team, Martin Maldonado has got to go.
The specifics? He was one of six players last year with over 400 plate appearances and an OPS+ of 66 or lower. Since 2019, he has an OPS+ of 70 over 1,700 plate appearances. He just played in his Age-36 season.
Since 2000, only nine catchers have logged 400 or more plate appearances at 37 or older. The list includes Hall of Famers Ivan Rodriguez, Craig Biggio, and Mike Piazza, but Biggio is only on there because he got a gimmicky start at catcher in his chase for 3,000 hit season. Only one catcher has gotten that many plate appearances in a season at that age since 2016, and that’s Yadier Molina.
Of those oldies, none of them had an OPS+ as low as Machete’s. The only one who came close was Ivan Rodriguez, who may be the best defensive catcher since Johnny Bench.
Age is undefeated. It’s not a knock on his legacy for Houston to say “see ya later” to Maldy.
What’s the solution? Well, Houston has an excellent young player in Yainer Diaz, who can play the position. He has a good arm and a good bat. He still needs to work on game prep, but if the new coaching staff can’t help him, is that really on the player?
My plan includes bringing in a backup catcher to help Yainer out. I’d target Victor Carantini. He’s 30 years old, which is young for the backstops on the market. He has an injury history, but it’s not too severe. He probably won’t get starter money on the market.
But more importantly, offensively, he profiles as a good match for this lineup. One of Houston’s offensive weaknesses in the playoffs is a lack of contact hitters. When the big boppers get neutralized, no one can come up with a sneaky base hit when you need it.
That need is why Dusty played Mauricio Dubon far too much in the playoffs and why Michael Brantley made such sense to this lineup.
If Carantini can bring that on a sensible one- or two-year deal, Houston should sign him.
In Conclusion
So that’s it. Those are my bold predictions. Cody Bellinger, Michael Wacha, and Victor Carantini will round out this roster next year, managed by Donny Ballgame. Put it on the boarddddd, yes.