Some things to talk about while I enjoy listening to the mellifluous voice of Robert Ford once again…
Spring Training Storyline Bingo
I am on record, repeatedly, that spring training doesn’t matter.
Disregard the weird digs at Astros SuperFan, Generally Great Writer, and Ace Soccer Coach James Yasko. Note the “into it before it was cool” Dune reference. Also note my disdain for hipsters, yet I just tried to claim something in a very hipster-y way. I contain multitudes.
Anyways! Spring games have started. We are that much closer to real baseball and the 2024 season. One of the hallmarks of spring are the storylines. Every year, the stories are the same; all that changes are the names. To wit, this year we’ve already seen:
Veteran develops worrisome injury: Verlander suffers “hiccup”
Old man tries yoga: Jose Abreu is into Pilates now
World traveler: Taylor Scott a non-roster invitee
A new pitch: Bryan Abreu now has a changeup
A new batting stance: How Astros' Jeremy Peña changed his batting stance this offseason
Best Shape Of His Life: Cristian Javier drops 15 lbs.
Team will run more: Dave Clark to help Astros be more aggressive on basepaths
Forrest Whitley hurt again: Forrest Whitley hurt again
Reliever may be stretching out to make spot starts: Ronel Blanco preparing for unknown roles
Pending free agent expects “best season of his life”: Alex Bregman expects great season in 2024
Former first-round pick excited to be in big-league camp: Brice Matthews gets a taste of big-league spring in Grapefruit League debut
Player has quirky hobby: Luke Berryhill releases country tune
That’s a lot. But almost all of them have happened before. They’ll happen again. Will they matter much in the grand scheme of things in 2024? Only the injuries may.
It doesn’t make them less fun. I’m just glad baseball is back.
Lineup talk
There’s always some discussion in spring about new lineups. Guys getting dropped or moving up. This one deserves its own discussion, as Houston is planning on batting Yordan Alvarez in the two-spot.
Lineup construction is something that fans yell about a lot. So much. So so much. You can understand why. It’s a very public sign of what a manager is bringing to the ballclub. Batting Roger Maris in front of Mickey Mantle apparently gave Maris more pitches to mash, thus giving him 61* home runs.
Or so the story goes.
That’s why Dusty Baker got yelled at so much on social media. He was a traditionalist, so Jeremy Pena got more starts than maybe he should have in the two-hole.
But what do sabermetrics say about it? What do analytics have to say about roster construction?
It’s not a new question. This article from Crawfish Boxes was from 2014. The esteemed Sky Kalkman wrote about it in general in 2009. All of it is based on the work of three leading lights in baseball analytics, Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin, in their book, The Book.
Their idea, simple as it now seems, is that your leadoff hitter should get on base, not just be speedy. Your second hitter should be your best hitter in the lineup, since they will see more at-bats. The third hitter isn’t as important as the cleanup hitter, who should have power and be your second-best hitter.
Kalkman walks you through all of it in his excellent article. The point people lose is the edge teams gain in optimizing their lineup is minimal. We aren’t talking turning a middling offense into the ‘27 Yankees. It’s marginal value.
For a team like Houston, that’s still important. They’re looking for every edge they can gain when trying to win a title. And that’s probably why new manager Joe Espada is tinkering with Alvarez in the two-hole.
If he goes Jose Altuve - Yordan Alvarez - Alex Bregman - Kyle Tucker, Espada will have “optimized” his top four spots while also giving himself a nice righty-lefty cadence. His top three hitters (Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker) will be in the three most important spots, and a guy who gets on base at a good clip (Bregman) will be in a good position to help create runs.
The no. 5 hitter is supposed to be better with the bat, getting more singles, doubles, and such, than your other hitters. I don’t think they will drop Breggy to No. 5, so that means Jose Abreu probably gets this. As long as he hits like he did at the end of 2023, that isn’t the worst scenario. But I might prefer Chazzy Fizz in this spot.
Is it surprising that Houston is optimizing its lineup now that Dusty is gone? Not at all. Espada is younger and probably more inclined to roll with the analytics guys. It’s the same idea Houston had batting George Springer leadoff and Jose Altuve second for all those years under A.J. Hinch.
The flow is back
Not since the likes of Mike Foltynewicz and Jake Marisnick patrolled Houston’s dugout has Houston had the kind of hair they potentially have this year.
This is Josh Hader:
This is prospect Spencer Arrighetti:
That’s some powerful flow going on with both pitchers. Arrighetti won’t make the opening day roster, barring many unforeseen injuries. But given what he did last year, it seems likely he could make his debut this year.
With any luck, we will have Arrighetti relieved by Hader. The hair must flow.