Wednesday's Three Astros Things
Talking about the no-hitter, Kent Emanuel, and last night's stinker.
Some things to talk about while I prepare for a snowstorm in April? What sorcery is this??
Reflections on the no-hitter
What makes a pitcher unlikely to throw a no-hitter?
Is it stuff? Is it luck? Is it stamina?
To get through a lineup without giving up a hit, a player has to have pretty good control, though Framber Valdez certainly walked plenty in his no-no last year. Heck, Dock Ellis walked eight in his LSD-fueled no-hitter back in 1970. So control is nice but not necessary.
What about stuff? Certainly throwing 94-97 like Ronel Blanco does helps. His changeup got a lot of play, too, changing speeds to keep the Blue Jays off balance.
But Hall of Fame knuckleballer Hoyt Wilhelm no-hit the Yankees back in 1958. So stuff isn’t the end-all, be-all of no-hitters.
Is it the lineup? The have-nots of the baseball world sure get no-hit a lot. But the Blue Jays are a contending team returning most of their lineup. They were missing Bo Bichette, but one player does not a lineup make.
Some of the best hitters in the game never threw a no-no. Which is why luck is so important.
On Monday, Ronel Blanco had luck on his side. He had plenty of skill and determination. He controlled his pitches more than he has in his short career. He threw hard and evenly, never losing himself to emotion. And he pitched himself into history.
More than 36 hours later, I’m still in awe.
Here are some more notes I thought were interesting from around the web:
Joe Espada was the first manager in MLB history to record his first-ever win with a no-hitter. Such a niche piece of history. To think baseball has been played for more than a hundred years and still stuff is happening that has never, ever happened before.
Yainer Diaz is the first catcher to hit two home runs in a game and catch a no-no. Again, not super common, so I see why it’s history, but still kinda incredible. Johnny Bench better watch out.
Yanier himself is on a bit of a heater, hitting the cover off the ball. He also seemed composed and in control of the team after Blanco’s no hitter. He talked about seeing the cambio in spring training and knowing that Blanco could control it. So on Monday, he called it. A bunch. That’s a smart catcher who knows his staff. I’m pretty bullish on his future.
From FanGraphs: Remarkably, no other team has more than two no-hitters — either solo or combined — in that span, and it’s conceivable that at some point this year the Astros could cycle through four starters with at least one (including combos) under their belts. Houston’s total of 17 no-hitters is the most of any team since the start of the expansion era in 1961; the Dodgers and Angels are tied for second with 13. While the offense-suppressing Astrodome may have boosted that total, just six no-hitters were thrown there, all by the Astros, during its 1965–99 run. In other words, the team has matched that total in the past six years, a time when batting averages have dipped to levels not seen since the early 1970s.
FanGraphs on Kent Emanuel
Michael Baumann has an excellent short article over at FanGraphs about former Astros draft pick Kent Emanuel. The big lefty was drafted out of college, where he was overused enough to be the poster child of a New York Times editorial about pitching usage.
He then dealt with the usual problems a pitcher does after being overworked in college, but finally made his MLB debut and pitched well. He just had to deal with a torn UCL and a drug suspension on the way.
Baumann lays it all out in honor of Emanuel being called up by the Marlins to start another game. He had this to say about Emanuel being that “poster child.”
Emanuel’s lightning rod arm, of course, was attached to a human being, a well-regarded pitching prospect who turned 21 the morning after his near-calamitous relief outing against FAU. At the time, the Astros were still in the midst of their rebuild and targeting polished college pitchers who could move quickly. Emanuel, an athletic 6-foot-4 lefty, certainly fit with a team that had just spent its first pick on Mark Appel.
One of the articles I wrote for TCB that I still think about was one on Philip Humber. he had thrown a perfect game in Seattle. As I mentioned above, I have a bit of a bias towards no-hitters. Call it the Nolan Ryan Effect. But Humber was so lost in Houston, it made me reflect on losing and the mental toll it takes on these humans.
Mark Appel is another good mention here. While I didn’t like that Houston took Appel at the top of his draft (I think I was on a podcast stumping for Kris Bryant back in the day), I still empathized with all his struggled and cheered him on when he finally made it to the majors with the Phillies.
Emanuel making it back to the big leagues is an achievement, no matter how his tenure goes. Sometimes the outcome is more about perseverance and human fragility, not success.
Now for the ugh
After Monday’s triumph and breakout offensive game, Houston was back to anemia at the plate on Tuesday.
Jose Altuve’s fourth-inning home run was it for offensive production. Tuve then killed a rally in the bottom of the eighth with his TOOTBLAN at third. A real bummer, that was.
Kyle Tucker, Altuve, and Yainer Diaz remain on fire, but the rest of the lineup has been hit or miss. It’s especially tough when the Big Man, Yordan Alvarez, continues to slump. He hit that ball in the bottom of the eighth that looked gone off his bat.
It turned into a harmless fly ball to George Springer.
While it was nice to see Framber Valdez get back to his ace pitching ways, the bullpen continues to struggle. Houston invested heavily in (sigh) Rafael Montero, Ryan Pressly, and Josh Hader.
Those three players alone account for $44 million of Houston’s payroll. All three are in the top 10 highest paid Astros this year.
And they’ve all been butt.
I am on the record as never trusting relievers, but I really thought bringing in Hader would at least solidify the back end of the bullpen. There would be struggles on the middle innings, but get it to Bryan Abreu, Pressly, and Hader, and the team would be fine.
Everyone has struggled though. It’s a small sample size, but even Hader has allowed baserunners and struggled with his command.
It’s too early to be concerned, but concerned I am. I wonder how soon Dana Brown will be looking for waiver wire finds or low level trades to shore up this sinking ship of a bullpen.